Maven Presidential Tracker: Romney Surges, Perry Falters, and Obama’s Slide Continues
Results of Third in a Series of Maven Surveys of Political Experts
SAN FRANCISCO, CA — November 1, 2011 – With a little more than a year to go before the 2012 presidential election, Maven, the Global Knowledge Marketplace, has released the results of its most recent presidential election tracking survey. Once again asking, “Who will win in 2012 and why?” the third survey of political experts shows a Republican field dominated by Mitt Romney and Barack Obama’s support slipping below 50% for the first time.
The survey’s respondents included political consultants, lobbyists, and government relations professionals from Maven’s extensive microconsulting network.
The results show Barack Obama receiving 48 percent of the votes, down from 52 percent in the August survey and 56% in the June survey. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is now back as the Republican front runner, moving up to an all-time high of 44 percent from a low of 20 percent in August.
Rick Perry, who led the Republican field in the last survey with 28 percent, only received 4 percent of the votes in the current survey, reflecting a stunning reversal in confidence in his prospects in the wake of his poor debate performances. Herman Cain, who has recently emerged as the Republican front runner in several popular polls, also only garnered 4 percent of the votes from Maven’s political experts.
“As we’ve seen in previous surveys, the Mavens we polled are not easily swayed by headlines and media attention given to new front runners. They’re politically savvy professionals whose careers are intimately tied to the outcome in 2012,” commented Maven Co-Founder and CEO Wyatt Nordstrom. “Unlike “opinion polls” that focus on who ordinary voters say they will support, our tracking survey asks political professionals for their opinion on who is actually going to win. They know the candidates and they know how the system works.”
Participants were also asked to comment on the reasons for their selections. Highlights include:
- Respondents who continued to predict an Obama victory noted the lack of a Republican candidate that appealed to most Americans, the difficulty for a Republican to beat a sitting President and the divisiveness among Republican candidates. One respondent summed it by saying:
I believe Obama will win reelection; the Republican challengers each have significant hurdles to overcome. The front-runner for the nomination, in my view, Mitt Romney, is likely unacceptable to a significant proportion of Republicans (yielding stay-home voters and a Democratic win).
Another respondent added:
Ultimately, the flaws and liabilities of the potential Republican nominees, not to mention the Republican Congress, are even greater than Obama’s serious flaws and liabilities. Obama is still the favorite to win, but just barely.
- On the other hand, economic difficulties were cited as the major reason Obama would not win:
(Because of) economic issues, Candidate Romney beats President Obama hands down on how to create jobs and stimulate the economy.
- The growing belief that Romney will win in 2012 was based on his business savvy and the campaign organization he has developed. Respondents also saw the economy as a factor in a Romney victory in 2012. As one respondent noted:
(Romney) has built the campaign infrastructure needed to win nomination… making him most likely to win GOP nomination. In the general election, he has a plausible ‘Mr. Economic Fix-it’ story to tell, and Obama will still be suffering from widespread rejection of his policies, giving Romney the edge.
This is the third in a series of surveys conducted by Maven leading up to the November 2012 election. Results are tracked to illustrate how sentiment among the respondent population changes as events unfold.
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